{ "export": { "source": "https://urth.darkrealm.vip/thread/urth/6278", "note": "Exported from an unofficial mirror of a public mailing list. Copyright in each message remains with the person who wrote it. Email addresses are obscured as `user at host`, the form the original archive published. This file was rebuilt from parsed fields rather than retained headers, so it is faithful in content but not byte-exact.", "addresses": "obscured as 'user at host'" }, "archive": "urth", "thread": { "id": 6278, "subject": "Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "messages": 51, "voices": 13, "first": "2012-07-27T16:28:47+00:00", "last": "2012-08-03T13:29:50+00:00" }, "messages": [ { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Gwern Branwen", "address": "gwern0 at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-27T16:28:47+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": null, "reply_link": null, "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nI've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n\nThe stories in SS though are absolutely littered with\nlibertarian/conservative plots or asides. Some stories do nothing but\npush such ideas. \"Viewpoint\", for example, has a dystopian government\nwhich claims to own all money and which suppresses all weaponry, the\nbetter to oppress its citizenry; the protagonist, who is a heroic\nmoral wilderness survivalist fellow, spends most of the story trying\nto get a weapon. His great victory is to murder a government agent.\n\"Has Anyone Seen Junie Moon?\", when it's not trying to channel\nLafferty, ends with best wishes for a rebellion that will kill 'the\nbig important gangs with suits and guns' (the government). \"The Fat\nMagician\" ends with a rant about totalitarian governments. Another\nstory seems to implies that the government is responsible for taking\naway everything interesting and handing over power to machines and\nrules (\"Petting Zoo\"), while in \"The Dog of the Drops\", the government\nseems to engineer the extinction of dogs because dogs don't pay taxes\nand don't love the government but their owners. (I'm speculating a\nlittle with this one because the dialect is so hard to read.) And so\non.\n\nI haven't even finished, but it's all far more blatant than _An Evil Guest_" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Today on Hacker News I saw a link to\nhttp://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions \"1987 Time\nCapsule Predictions\" for 2012 (25 years in the future; HN discussion:\nhttp://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4299337 ). It included some\npredictions from Gene Wolfe. I will take the liberty of quoting them\nin full:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "GENE WOLFE\n\nMORE THAN HALF OF YOU CAN'T READ THIS\n\nBut the Writers of the Future Contest has asked me to read your palm, nevertheless. Twenty-five years is not great length on the scale of the history, and thus I am conservative, limiting myself to the following five predictions one for each finger. And indeed, they are less prediction than certainty.\n\n- The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord, each testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear war has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more like Soviets) than anyone else.\n- The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling remain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few hundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students for employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called interaction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\n- The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the only commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by computer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people. Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and fantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so identified.\n- The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which normally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is amply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved party; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years. (I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this was written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People live in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant.\n- The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in government and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are experimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the individual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is to increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy, without provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising powers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also exists.\n\n Its products, too, are largely science fiction and fantasy; it tries to broaden the literate base, in part in order that its output can be read. It is of course to you of this counterculture that I write to say, take heart! Twenty-five years is no great length upon the long scale of history. In my time too, the age was dark. But we are summoning the sun." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "What is striking about these is that they are all wrong. Of the dozens\nof discrete predictions here, there are perhaps 4 which are correct\n(no major nuclear war, Soviets more like Americans, widespread use of\nsimulations, the rise of China), and a few more which are debatable\n(rise of genre fiction, SF/Fantasy in TV & movies), and the rest are\nblatantly incorrect or if correct, correct for the wrong reasons (eg.\nI haven't looked up whether 50m adults are functionally illiterate in\nEnglish, but if there are that many, I bet much of that will be due\nnot to the educational system - which continues as it usually has -\nbut due to immigration and other such factors).\n\nIt's hard not to see what ideological trend characterizes Wolfe's\nwrong predictions.\n\n(On the plus side, some of the others made some remarkably prescient\npredictions: Benford on shale oil and Wolverton on the Men's Right\nMovement, for example.)" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "gwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Bailey Swartz", "address": "bsswartz at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-27T17:56:13+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Are you trying to say that Wolfe is a conservative old fool? In the first\nemail, you use the word, \"littered\", to describe the inclusion of\nlibertarian ideas in his recent stories, as if they were trash. In the\nsecond, your zeal for showing Wolfe's predictions false is hardly veiled." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Fri, Jul 27, 2012 at 9:28 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nOn Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n\nThe stories in SS though are absolutely littered with\nlibertarian/conservative plots or asides. Some stories do nothing but\npush such ideas. \"Viewpoint\", for example, has a dystopian government\nwhich claims to own all money and which suppresses all weaponry, the\nbetter to oppress its citizenry; the protagonist, who is a heroic\nmoral wilderness survivalist fellow, spends most of the story trying\nto get a weapon. His great victory is to murder a government agent.\n\"Has Anyone Seen Junie Moon?\", when it's not trying to channel\nLafferty, ends with best wishes for a rebellion that will kill 'the\nbig important gangs with suits and guns' (the government). \"The Fat\nMagician\" ends with a rant about totalitarian governments. Another\nstory seems to implies that the government is responsible for taking\naway everything interesting and handing over power to machines and\nrules (\"Petting Zoo\"), while in \"The Dog of the Drops\", the government\nseems to engineer the extinction of dogs because dogs don't pay taxes\nand don't love the government but their owners. (I'm speculating a\nlittle with this one because the dialect is so hard to read.) And so\non.\n\nI haven't even finished, but it's all far more blatant than _An Evil\nGuest_" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Today on Hacker News I saw a link to\nhttp://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions \"1987 Time\nCapsule Predictions\" for 2012 (25 years in the future; HN discussion:\nhttp://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4299337 ). It included some\npredictions from Gene Wolfe. I will take the liberty of quoting them\nin full:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "GENE WOLFE\n\nMORE THAN HALF OF YOU CAN'T READ THIS\n\nBut the Writers of the Future Contest has asked me to read your palm,\nnevertheless. Twenty-five years is not great length on the scale of the\nhistory, and thus I am conservative, limiting myself to the following five\npredictions one for each finger. And indeed, they are less prediction than\ncertainty.\n\n- The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord,\neach testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear\nwar has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more\nlike Soviets) than anyone else.\n- The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling\nremain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few\nhundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students\nfor employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called\ninteraction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\n- The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the\nonly commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by\ncomputer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and\nfantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so\nidentified." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "- The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which\nnormally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is\namply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved\nparty; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "(I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this\nwas written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People\nlive in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "- The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in\ngovernment and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are\nexperimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the\nindividual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is\nto increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy,\nwithout provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising\npowers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also\nexists.\n\n Its products, too, are largely science fiction and fantasy; it tries\nto broaden the literate base, in part in order that its output can be read." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "It is of course to you of this counterculture that I write to say, take\n heart! Twenty-five years is no great length upon the long scale of\nhistory. In my time too, the age was dark. But we are summoning the sun.\n\nWhat is striking about these is that they are all wrong. Of the dozens\nof discrete predictions here, there are perhaps 4 which are correct\n(no major nuclear war, Soviets more like Americans, widespread use of\nsimulations, the rise of China), and a few more which are debatable\n(rise of genre fiction, SF/Fantasy in TV & movies), and the rest are\nblatantly incorrect or if correct, correct for the wrong reasons (eg.\nI haven't looked up whether 50m adults are functionally illiterate in\nEnglish, but if there are that many, I bet much of that will be due\nnot to the educational system - which continues as it usually has -\nbut due to immigration and other such factors).\n\nIt's hard not to see what ideological trend characterizes Wolfe's\nwrong predictions.\n\n(On the plus side, some of the others made some remarkably prescient\npredictions: Benford on shale oil and Wolverton on the Men's Right\nMovement, for example.)\n\n--\ngwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Allan Anderson", "address": "rubel at goosemoon.org" }, "date": "2012-07-27T17:59:56+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Fri, Jul 27, 2012 at 9:28 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nOn Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n\nThe stories in SS though are absolutely littered with\nlibertarian/conservative plots or asides. Some stories do nothing but\npush such ideas. \"Viewpoint\", for example, has a dystopian government\nwhich claims to own all money and which suppresses all weaponry, the\nbetter to oppress its citizenry; the protagonist, who is a heroic\nmoral wilderness survivalist fellow, spends most of the story trying\nto get a weapon. His great victory is to murder a government agent.\n\"Has Anyone Seen Junie Moon?\", when it's not trying to channel\nLafferty, ends with best wishes for a rebellion that will kill 'the\nbig important gangs with suits and guns' (the government). \"The Fat\nMagician\" ends with a rant about totalitarian governments. Another\nstory seems to implies that the government is responsible for taking\naway everything interesting and handing over power to machines and\nrules (\"Petting Zoo\"), while in \"The Dog of the Drops\", the government\nseems to engineer the extinction of dogs because dogs don't pay taxes\nand don't love the government but their owners. (I'm speculating a\nlittle with this one because the dialect is so hard to read.) And so\non.\n\nI haven't even finished, but it's all far more blatant than _An Evil\nGuest_" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Today on Hacker News I saw a link to\nhttp://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions \"1987 Time\nCapsule Predictions\" for 2012 (25 years in the future; HN discussion:\nhttp://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4299337 ). It included some\npredictions from Gene Wolfe. I will take the liberty of quoting them\nin full:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "GENE WOLFE\n\nMORE THAN HALF OF YOU CAN'T READ THIS\n\nBut the Writers of the Future Contest has asked me to read your palm,\nnevertheless. Twenty-five years is not great length on the scale of the\nhistory, and thus I am conservative, limiting myself to the following five\npredictions one for each finger. And indeed, they are less prediction than\ncertainty.\n\n- The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord,\neach testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear\nwar has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more\nlike Soviets) than anyone else.\n- The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling\nremain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few\nhundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students\nfor employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called\ninteraction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\n- The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the\nonly commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by\ncomputer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and\nfantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so\nidentified." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "- The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which\nnormally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is\namply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved\nparty; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "(I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this\nwas written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People\nlive in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "- The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in\ngovernment and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are\nexperimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the\nindividual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is\nto increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy,\nwithout provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising\npowers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also\nexists.\n\n Its products, too, are largely science fiction and fantasy; it tries\nto broaden the literate base, in part in order that its output can be read." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "It is of course to you of this counterculture that I write to say, take\n heart! Twenty-five years is no great length upon the long scale of\nhistory. In my time too, the age was dark. But we are summoning the sun.\n\nWhat is striking about these is that they are all wrong. Of the dozens\nof discrete predictions here, there are perhaps 4 which are correct\n(no major nuclear war, Soviets more like Americans, widespread use of\nsimulations, the rise of China), and a few more which are debatable\n(rise of genre fiction, SF/Fantasy in TV & movies), and the rest are\nblatantly incorrect or if correct, correct for the wrong reasons (eg.\nI haven't looked up whether 50m adults are functionally illiterate in\nEnglish, but if there are that many, I bet much of that will be due\nnot to the educational system - which continues as it usually has -\nbut due to immigration and other such factors).\n\nIt's hard not to see what ideological trend characterizes Wolfe's\nwrong predictions.\n\n(On the plus side, some of the others made some remarkably prescient\npredictions: Benford on shale oil and Wolverton on the Men's Right\nMovement, for example.)" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Regarding the \"wrong predictions,\" I wonder if Wolfe was trolling his\nreaders, hoping to get them off their rears. I think he wrote them to\nperturb current readers, not to accurately prognosticate." } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-28T00:00:54+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 27/07/2012, ?s 18:59, Allan Anderson escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Regarding the \"wrong predictions,\" I wonder if Wolfe was trolling his readers, hoping to get them off their rears. I think he wrote them to perturb current readers, not to accurately prognosticate." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Almost no one predicted the end of the USSR and that did were derided. A prediction that the Russians and Americans would keep on their standoff while becoming very much like each other is not very off the mark. \n\nNor do I see the Illiteracy thing as misplaced. Give it a bit more time. I blame the breakdown of familial transmission of culture brought about by modern jobs. \n\nFor me, the shocking bit is that it really was possible to seriously predict technological development far beyond what we have now." } ] }, { "message_id": "<5013ED08.8020106@colby.edu>", "from": { "name": "Fernando Gouvea", "address": "fqgouvea at colby.edu" }, "date": "2012-07-28T13:45:44+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much. If I were going to worry about all \nthe kooky ideas I meet in various writers, I'd be left with not very \nmuch to read. Do they work as stories? Then good. If not, then they fail \nas stories, not because of whatever political stance they take. It's \nhard to see how anyone could enjoy Homer, Virgil, Dante, and Milton if \nthe issue was their politics. (Only Dante comes close to fitting mine in \nthat quartet, and even then not very close.)\n\nFernando" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 7/27/2012 12:28 PM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nOn Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n\nThe stories in SS though are absolutely littered with\nlibertarian/conservative plots or asides. Some stories do nothing but\npush such ideas. \"Viewpoint\", for example, has a dystopian government\nwhich claims to own all money and which suppresses all weaponry, the\nbetter to oppress its citizenry; the protagonist, who is a heroic\nmoral wilderness survivalist fellow, spends most of the story trying\nto get a weapon. His great victory is to murder a government agent.\n\"Has Anyone Seen Junie Moon?\", when it's not trying to channel\nLafferty, ends with best wishes for a rebellion that will kill 'the\nbig important gangs with suits and guns' (the government). \"The Fat\nMagician\" ends with a rant about totalitarian governments. Another\nstory seems to implies that the government is responsible for taking\naway everything interesting and handing over power to machines and\nrules (\"Petting Zoo\"), while in \"The Dog of the Drops\", the government\nseems to engineer the extinction of dogs because dogs don't pay taxes\nand don't love the government but their owners. (I'm speculating a\nlittle with this one because the dialect is so hard to read.) And so\non.\n\nI haven't even finished, but it's all far more blatant than _An Evil Guest_\nToday on Hacker News I saw a link to\nhttp://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions \"1987 Time\nCapsule Predictions\" for 2012 (25 years in the future; HN discussion:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4299337 ). It included some\npredictions from Gene Wolfe. I will take the liberty of quoting them\nin full:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "GENE WOLFE\n\nMORE THAN HALF OF YOU CAN'T READ THIS\n\nBut the Writers of the Future Contest has asked me to read your palm, nevertheless. Twenty-five years is not great length on the scale of the history, and thus I am conservative, limiting myself to the following five predictions one for each finger. And indeed, they are less prediction than certainty.\n\n- The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord, each testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear war has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more like Soviets) than anyone else.\n- The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling remain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few hundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students for employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called interaction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\n- The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the only commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by computer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people. Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and fantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so identified.\n- The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which normally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is amply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved party; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years. (I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this was written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People live in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant.\n- The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in government and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are experimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the individual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is to increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy, without provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising powers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also exists.\n\n Its products, too, are largely science fiction and fantasy; it tries to broaden the literate base, in part in order that its output can be read. It is of course to you of this counterculture that I write to say, take heart! Twenty-five years is no great length upon the long scale of history. In my time too, the age was dark. But we are summoning the sun." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "What is striking about these is that they are all wrong. Of the dozens\nof discrete predictions here, there are perhaps 4 which are correct\n(no major nuclear war, Soviets more like Americans, widespread use of\nsimulations, the rise of China), and a few more which are debatable\n(rise of genre fiction, SF/Fantasy in TV & movies), and the rest are\nblatantly incorrect or if correct, correct for the wrong reasons (eg.\nI haven't looked up whether 50m adults are functionally illiterate in\nEnglish, but if there are that many, I bet much of that will be due\nnot to the educational system - which continues as it usually has -\nbut due to immigration and other such factors).\n\nIt's hard not to see what ideological trend characterizes Wolfe's\nwrong predictions.\n\n(On the plus side, some of the others made some remarkably prescient\npredictions: Benford on shale oil and Wolverton on the Men's Right\nMovement, for example.)" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "=============================================================\nFernando Q. Gouvea http://www.colby.edu/~fqgouvea\nCarter Professor and Chair\nDept. of Mathematics and Statistics\nColby College\n5836 Mayflower Hill Editor, MAA Reviews\nWaterville, ME 04901 http://www.maa.org/maareviews\n\nThere are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.\n -- Disraeli" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Gwern Branwen", "address": "gwern0 at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-28T14:18:53+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5013ED08.8020106@colby.edu>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:\nI'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "gwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net" } ] }, { "message_id": "<1343514701.10536.YahooMailClassic@web160704.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>", "from": { "name": "Marc Aramini", "address": "marcaramini at yahoo.com" }, "date": "2012-07-28T22:31:41+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "He was far far more overtly political in his short stories of the early 70s and in Operation Ares, and most of that stuff was not reprinted. If anything as we get farther away from the bogeyman of socialism actually being the dominant zeitgeist of our time his fiction leaves political obsessions behind for narrative and spiritual preoccupations. Just my two cents.\n\n--- On Sat, 7/28/12, Gwern Branwen wrote:\n\n\nFrom: Gwern Branwen \nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\nTo: \"The Urth Mailing List\" \nDate: Saturday, July 28, 2012, 7:18 AM" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:\nI'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "gwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net" } ] }, { "message_id": "<8C97F2C6-F73F-48E9-BE33-6D2603638AE0@gmail.com>", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-29T00:52:59+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view. " } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-07-29T00:55:18+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<1343514701.10536.YahooMailClassic@web160704.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I don't find 'socialism has taken over the free world' in those predictions. \n\nNo dia 28/07/2012, ?s 23:31, Marc Aramini escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "He was far far more overtly political in his short stories of the early 70s and in Operation Ares, and most of that stuff was not reprinted. If anything as we get farther away from the bogeyman of socialism actually being the dominant zeitgeist of our time his fiction leaves political obsessions behind for narrative and spiritual preoccupations. Just my two cents.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n--- On Sat, 7/28/12, Gwern Branwen wrote:\n\nFrom: Gwern Branwen \nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\nTo: \"The Urth Mailing List\" \nDate: Saturday, July 28, 2012, 7:18 AM\n\nOn Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!\n\n-- \ngwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Marc", "address": "marcaramini at yahoo.com" }, "date": "2012-07-29T04:37:23+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Nor do I. I am merely saying he became less thematically political in fiction after his early efforts.\n\nSent from my Kindle Fire\n\n\n\n\n\nI don't find 'socialism has taken over the free world' in those predictions. \n\n\nNo dia 28/07/2012, ?s 23:31, Marc Aramini escreveu:\n\n\nHe was far far more overtly political in his short stories of the early 70s and in Operation Ares, and most of that stuff was not reprinted. If anything as we get farther away from the bogeyman of socialism actually being the dominant zeitgeist of our time his fiction leaves political obsessions behind for narrative and spiritual preoccupations. Just my two cents.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n--- On Sat, 7/28/12, Gwern Branwen wrote:\n\n\nFrom: Gwern Branwen \nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\nTo: \"The Urth Mailing List\" \nDate: Saturday, July 28, 2012, 7:18 AM" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:\nI'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "gwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50189382.60104@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T02:25:06+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "#4 is perhaps the most interesting premise (and one Wolfe has approached \nmany times), and yet the silliest as far as realistic prediction goes.\n\nI take heart in his pessimism though. ;)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 7/27/2012 12:28 PM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nOn Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n\nThe stories in SS though are absolutely littered with\nlibertarian/conservative plots or asides. Some stories do nothing but\npush such ideas. \"Viewpoint\", for example, has a dystopian government\nwhich claims to own all money and which suppresses all weaponry, the\nbetter to oppress its citizenry; the protagonist, who is a heroic\nmoral wilderness survivalist fellow, spends most of the story trying\nto get a weapon. His great victory is to murder a government agent.\n\"Has Anyone Seen Junie Moon?\", when it's not trying to channel\nLafferty, ends with best wishes for a rebellion that will kill 'the\nbig important gangs with suits and guns' (the government). \"The Fat\nMagician\" ends with a rant about totalitarian governments. Another\nstory seems to implies that the government is responsible for taking\naway everything interesting and handing over power to machines and\nrules (\"Petting Zoo\"), while in \"The Dog of the Drops\", the government\nseems to engineer the extinction of dogs because dogs don't pay taxes\nand don't love the government but their owners. (I'm speculating a\nlittle with this one because the dialect is so hard to read.) And so\non.\n\nI haven't even finished, but it's all far more blatant than _An Evil Guest_\nToday on Hacker News I saw a link to\nhttp://www.writersofthefuture.com/time-capsule-predictions \"1987 Time\nCapsule Predictions\" for 2012 (25 years in the future; HN discussion:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4299337 ). It included some\npredictions from Gene Wolfe. I will take the liberty of quoting them\nin full:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "GENE WOLFE\n\nMORE THAN HALF OF YOU CAN'T READ THIS\n\nBut the Writers of the Future Contest has asked me to read your palm, nevertheless. Twenty-five years is not great length on the scale of the history, and thus I am conservative, limiting myself to the following five predictions one for each finger. And indeed, they are less prediction than certainty.\n\n- The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord, each testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear war has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more like Soviets) than anyone else.\n- The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling remain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few hundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students for employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called interaction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\n- The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the only commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by computer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people. Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and fantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so identified.\n- The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which normally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is amply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved party; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years. (I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this was written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People live in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant.\n- The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in government and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are experimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the individual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is to increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy, without provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising powers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also exists.\n\n Its products, too, are largely science fiction and fantasy; it tries to broaden the literate base, in part in order that its output can be read. It is of course to you of this counterculture that I write to say, take heart! Twenty-five years is no great length upon the long scale of history. In my time too, the age was dark. But we are summoning the sun." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "What is striking about these is that they are all wrong. Of the dozens\nof discrete predictions here, there are perhaps 4 which are correct\n(no major nuclear war, Soviets more like Americans, widespread use of\nsimulations, the rise of China), and a few more which are debatable\n(rise of genre fiction, SF/Fantasy in TV & movies), and the rest are\nblatantly incorrect or if correct, correct for the wrong reasons (eg.\nI haven't looked up whether 50m adults are functionally illiterate in\nEnglish, but if there are that many, I bet much of that will be due\nnot to the educational system - which continues as it usually has -\nbut due to immigration and other such factors).\n\nIt's hard not to see what ideological trend characterizes Wolfe's\nwrong predictions.\n\n(On the plus side, some of the others made some remarkably prescient\npredictions: Benford on shale oil and Wolverton on the Men's Right\nMovement, for example.)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50189629.2010800@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T02:36:25+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<8C97F2C6-F73F-48E9-BE33-6D2603638AE0@gmail.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 7/28/2012 8:52 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:\nNo dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "But they are all wrong. Taken as a whole, they are way, way off. Of \ncourse I would not expect much \"accuracy\" so I don't care. Maybe they \nare in fact better than others' predictions.\n\nI think Gwern is suggesting that they work better as predictions of \n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\" \nI take the point. You have heard of the, er, \"Red Rose Brigade\"?\n\n(hint: they're a potent cup of tea!)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<2D12BD77-1325-4D55-A17B-0BA5DB947308@liftingfaces.com>", "from": { "name": "Ryan Dunn", "address": "ryan at liftingfaces.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T05:07:14+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<50189629.2010800@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Jul 31, 2012, at 10:36 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:\nOn 7/28/2012 8:52 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "No dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "But they are all wrong. Taken as a whole, they are way, way off. Of course I would not expect much \"accuracy\" so I don't care. Maybe they are in fact better than others' predictions.\n\nI think Gwern is suggesting that they work better as predictions of \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\" I take the point. You have heard of the, er, \"Red Rose Brigade\"?\n\n(hint: they're a potent cup of tea!)" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "David,\n\nPersonally, I took the whole essay as a bit of a lark on the part of Mr. Wolfe. I did like how he associated each finger with a facet of our human nature, though, then used it as a platform for his societal predictions.\n\n. . .\n\n\"The Thumb?Power: America and the U.S.S.R. preserve an uneasy accord, each testing the other's will within well-defined limits. No major nuclear war has taken place. Soviets are more like Americans (and Americans more like Soviets) than anyone else.\"\n\n- I dunno, besides the nuclear war (correct) prediction, I don't see much of a commitment one way or another here.\n\n\n\"The Index Finger?Learning: Vestiges of reading, writing, and spelling remain in the curricula of the public schools. Those who can read a few hundred common words are counted literate. The schools train their students for employment how to report to computers and follow instructions. (Called interaction.) Fifty million adult Americans are less than fluent in English.\"\n\n- Feels hyperbolic bordering on sarcastic.\n\n\n\"The Fool Finger?Entertainment: Sports and televised dramas are the only commonly available recreations. The dramas are performed by computer-generated images indistinguishable (on screen) from living people. Scenery is provided by the same method. Although science fiction and fantasy characterize the majority of these dramas, they are not so identified.\"\n\n- The dramas performed by CG humans who replace actors? Come on. Even CG characters need Andy Serkis!\n\n\n\"The Ring Finger?Love: There is little sex outside marriage, which normally includes a legal contract. A single instance of infidelity is amply sufficient to terminate a marriage, with damages to the aggrieved party; this is a consequence of the two great plagues of the past 25 years. (I do not include the one we call AIDS, because it began well before this was written.) The population of the planet is below six billion. People live in space and on the moon, but their numbers are not significant.\"\n\n- I felt some seriousness in PART of this prediction, but even still, the front half feels fictional even in his own words. World population indeed above 6B. It was 5B when he predicted that, and it is just under 7B today.\n\n\n\"The Little Finger?Minority: A literate stratum supplies leadership in government and most (though not all) other fields. Its members are experimenting with sociological simulations that take into account the individual characters and preferences of most of the population. Its aim is to increase the power of the literate class and further limit literacy, without provoking war with the U.S.S.R. or alienating the rising powers?China and the Latin American block. A literate counterculture also exists.\"\n\n- Literacy was a big paranoia back then, eh? Even still, half of this prediction could be interpreted as totally true. Or that same half could be interpreted to be completely false. It seems to me like Gene was giving non-predictions as much as predictions.\n\nMaybe that's just me.\n\n...ryan" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50191BEE.6060402@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T12:07:10+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<2D12BD77-1325-4D55-A17B-0BA5DB947308@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 1:07 AM, Ryan Dunn wrote:\nOn Jul 31, 2012, at 10:36 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 7/28/2012 8:52 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "No dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "But they are all wrong. Taken as a whole, they are way, way off. Of course I would not expect much \"accuracy\" so I don't care. Maybe they are in fact better than others' predictions.\n\nI think Gwern is suggesting that they work better as predictions of \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\" I take the point. You have heard of the, er, \"Red Rose Brigade\"?\n\n(hint: they're a potent cup of tea!)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "David,\n\nPersonally, I took the whole essay as a bit of a lark on the part of Mr. Wolfe. I did like how he associated each finger with a facet of our human nature, though, then used it as a platform for his societal predictions.\n\n. . .\n\n- Literacy was a big paranoia back then, eh? Even still, half of this prediction could be interpreted as totally true. Or that same half could be interpreted to be completely false. It seems to me like Gene was giving non-predictions as much as predictions.\n\nMaybe that's just me." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each \none as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must \nmean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the \n1960s." } ] }, { "message_id": "<8B488A81-86B0-42BB-B96B-80C5F251A42B@liftingfaces.com>", "from": { "name": "Ryan Dunn", "address": "ryan at liftingfaces.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T12:41:34+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<50191BEE.6060402@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Aug 1, 2012, at 8:07 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/1/2012 1:07 AM, Ryan Dunn wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On Jul 31, 2012, at 10:36 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On 7/28/2012 8:52 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "No dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 6, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "But they are all wrong. Taken as a whole, they are way, way off. Of course I would not expect much \"accuracy\" so I don't care. Maybe they are in fact better than others' predictions.\n\nI think Gwern is suggesting that they work better as predictions of \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\" I take the point. You have heard of the, er, \"Red Rose Brigade\"?\n\n(hint: they're a potent cup of tea!)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "David,\n\nPersonally, I took the whole essay as a bit of a lark on the part of Mr. Wolfe. I did like how he associated each finger with a facet of our human nature, though, then used it as a platform for his societal predictions.\n\n. . .\n\n- Literacy was a big paranoia back then, eh? Even still, half of this prediction could be interpreted as totally true. Or that same half could be interpreted to be completely false. It seems to me like Gene was giving non-predictions as much as predictions.\n\nMaybe that's just me." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the 1960s." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these predictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50192750.5060509@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T12:55:44+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<8B488A81-86B0-42BB-B96B-80C5F251A42B@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 8:41 AM, Ryan Dunn wrote:\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 8:07 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/1/2012 1:07 AM, Ryan Dunn wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On Jul 31, 2012, at 10:36 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "On 7/28/2012 8:52 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "No dia 28/07/2012, ?s 15:18, Gwern Branwen escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 6, "text": "On Sat, Jul 28, 2012 at 9:45 AM, Fernando Gouvea wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 7, "text": "I'm wondering why you care so much." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 6, "text": "I have a long-standing interest in predictions and what they reveal,\nwhich would alone would justify my interest, but besides that...\n\nI care because I wish one of my favorite authors to be an\nintellectually respectable author, perhaps along the lines of\nChesterton or Buckley or Charles Murray who I also enjoy reading, and\nit's disappointing to me to see that it's not a few allusions or plot\ntwists that I perhaps was simply misinterpreting or being overly\nsensitive to.\n\nAnd also because people here seem to have a hard time accepting it, so\nadditional data is welcome; witness the previous attempts to explain\nit all away, or in this thread the suggestion that maybe he was joking\nor trolling!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "I've read it again. I can see no connection between the predictions and your comments on them. You even say all of them are wrong, except most of them. About the only thing wrong there is the one on sex, which is so alien that people are justified in seeing it all as mere ideas to play with. More than the missing fall of the SU, the two important things no one had predicted are the rise of islamic fundamentalism and the Russian mafia.\nUnless you mean that the vision of controlling government is bonkers. Well, sorry, but you'll have to look very hard to find an sf writer who doesn't share that view." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "But they are all wrong. Taken as a whole, they are way, way off. Of course I would not expect much \"accuracy\" so I don't care. Maybe they are in fact better than others' predictions.\n\nI think Gwern is suggesting that they work better as predictions of \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\" I take the point. You have heard of the, er, \"Red Rose Brigade\"?\n\n(hint: they're a potent cup of tea!)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "David,\n\nPersonally, I took the whole essay as a bit of a lark on the part of Mr. Wolfe. I did like how he associated each finger with a facet of our human nature, though, then used it as a platform for his societal predictions.\n\n. . .\n\n- Literacy was a big paranoia back then, eh? Even still, half of this prediction could be interpreted as totally true. Or that same half could be interpreted to be completely false. It seems to me like Gene was giving non-predictions as much as predictions.\n\nMaybe that's just me." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the 1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these predictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Understood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about the \nwritten word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?\n\nOne could easily write whole books of criticism about the paranoid style \nin Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as someone has already \nnoted). I don't know what they would conclude, but I'd be interested in \nreading them.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics" } ] }, { "message_id": "<69B44E71-236D-4C6A-AB1D-C159CA25B380@liftingfaces.com>", "from": { "name": "Ryan Dunn", "address": "ryan at liftingfaces.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T13:18:21+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<50192750.5060509@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:\nSure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the 1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these predictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan\nUnderstood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about the written word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "One could easily write whole books of criticism about the paranoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as someone has already noted). I don't know what they would conclude, but I'd be interested in reading them.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Dave,\n\nI was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you that impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on this thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a shared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking his written word a bit seriously.\n\nMy point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling, and not all together serious in these predictions. So when someone takes \"a great interest in predictions and what they reveal,\" for instance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five fingered prediction would have revealed that he is indeed a sly, shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out 25 year predictions.\n\nI got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a hand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used to support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may have gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write from an extreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative, anti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other threads recently).\n\nHope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n...ryan" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Daniel Petersen", "address": "danielottojackpetersen at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T13:41:15+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<69B44E71-236D-4C6A-AB1D-C159CA25B380@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a hand as\nthat, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used to support a\nfeeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may have gotten me riled\na little bit. While he may write from an extreme, and detailed perspective\non society, he does not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who\nis increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative,\nanti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other threads\nrecently).\n\n\nGonna have to tend to agree here...\n\n(And Gwern, please don't assume this is an inability to see no wrong in\nWolfe from some of his fans - it might be a very considered opinion just\nlike yours. Don't get me wrong! I like your insights in this group - but\nI think you might be a bit dismissive sometimes of people who don't see\nWolfe as a scary right-winger to the degree you do.)\n\n-DOJP" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 2:18 PM, Ryan Dunn wrote:\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff \nwrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret\neach one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in\n2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That\nmust mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the\n1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these\npredictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my\nobservation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique\nof what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan\nUnderstood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about the\nwritten word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "One could easily write whole books of criticism about the paranoid style\nin Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as someone has already\nnoted). I don't know what they would conclude, but I'd be interested in\nreading them.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Dave,\n\nI was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you that\nimpression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on this thread, and\nfelt that we (as a collective of readers with a shared interest on a common\nmailing list) may have been taking his written word a bit seriously.\n\nMy point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling, and not all\ntogether serious in these predictions. So when someone takes \"a great\ninterest in predictions and what they reveal,\" for instance, I would hope\nthat Mr. Wolfe's five fingered prediction would have revealed that he is\nindeed a sly, shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out\n25 year predictions.\n\nI got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a hand as\nthat, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used to support a\nfeeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may have gotten me riled\na little bit. While he may write from an extreme, and detailed perspective\non society, he does not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who\nis increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative,\nanti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other threads\nrecently).\n\nHope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n...ryan\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "<1343844296.27434.YahooMailNeo@web84508.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>", "from": { "name": "DAVID STOCKHOFF", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T18:04:56+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<69B44E71-236D-4C6A-AB1D-C159CA25B380@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "________________________________\nFrom: Ryan Dunn \nTo: The Urth Mailing List \nSent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 9:18 AM\nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the 1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these predictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan\nUnderstood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about the written word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "One could easily write whole books of criticism about the paranoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as someone has already noted). I don't know what they would conclude, but I'd be interested in reading them.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Dave,\n\nI was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you that impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on this thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a shared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking his written word a bit seriously.\n\nMy point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling, and not all together serious in these predictions. So when someone takes \"a great interest in predictions and what they reveal,\" for instance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five fingered prediction would have revealed that he is indeed a sly, shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out 25 year predictions.\n\nI got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a hand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used to support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may have gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write from an extreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative, anti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other threads recently).\n\nHope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n...ryan\n\nYes it does, thanks!\n\nOf course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing specifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree that he came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he wasn't doing that, there is still that cast or quality to explain. I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be. \n\nUltimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question and suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on the man himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein was in his later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point, or not. \n\nIn fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an agenda, which I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that he was not trying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just playing along in his provocative way. But people do get set in their mental pathways with age, and maybe these moments of candor can be revealing. As a frinstance, my dad is also in his eighties and still very liberal in outlook, but even he passes along silly emails that reflect a certain, er, something. (No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<1343844841.95291.YahooMailClassic@web160701.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>", "from": { "name": "Marc Aramini", "address": "marcaramini at yahoo.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T18:14:01+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<1343844296.27434.YahooMailNeo@web84508.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "--- On Wed, 8/1/12, DAVID STOCKHOFF wrote: (I think it was David, the formatting is a little off here)\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOf course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing specifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree that he came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he wasn't doing that, there is still that cast or quality to explain. I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be. \n\nUltimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question and suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on the man himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein was in his later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point, or not. \n\nIn fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an agenda, which I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that he was not trying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just playing along in his provocative way. But people do get set in their mental pathways with age, and maybe these moments of candor can be revealing. As a frinstance, my dad is also in his eighties and still very liberal in outlook, but even he passes along silly emails that reflect a certain, er, something. (No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)\n\n\nI think for a religious conservative he is remarkably open minded in personal correspondence, all things considered, and ageism (however that's spelled) really shouldn't be an issue when we talk about Wolfe. (Though I have feared that when I approach my 80s the innate tyrannical facism I have hidden and suppressed from everyone around me will come boiling out, if I live that long)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<362C6AC4-FD7D-43C1-9DAC-983471EB3743@liftingfaces.com>", "from": { "name": "Ryan Dunn", "address": "ryan at liftingfaces.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T18:15:51+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<1343844296.27434.YahooMailNeo@web84508.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a conversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be the type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps ahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to counter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner.\n\nAnd that LAUGH! Equal parts genuine and sinister; the type of laugh to comfort you at the same time it sets you on edge.\n\nNot sure if any of that translates to acutely self-aware, but his opinions and outlook seems very grounded in relevant, present-day culture and not a paranoid Cold War outlook or anything to that extent.\n\nJust wanted to add that piece of perspective. I would be curious to any others who have gotten to know Mr. Wolfe how they compare my assessment, or if I am speaking from the minority on the matter.\n\n...ryan" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Aug 1, 2012, at 2:04 PM, DAVID STOCKHOFF wrote:\nFrom: Ryan Dunn \nTo: The Urth Mailing List \nSent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 9:18 AM\nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. That must mean something.\n\nBTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at least the 1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to these predictions and letting it color their impression of him, the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n\n...ryan\nUnderstood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about the written word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "One could easily write whole books of criticism about the paranoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as someone has already noted). I don't know what they would conclude, but I'd be interested in reading them.\n\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Dave,\n\nI was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you that impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on this thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a shared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking his written word a bit seriously.\n\nMy point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling, and not all together serious in these predictions. So when someone takes \"a great interest in predictions and what they reveal,\" for instance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five fingered prediction would have revealed that he is indeed a sly, shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out 25 year predictions.\n\nI got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a hand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used to support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may have gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write from an extreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative, anti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other threads recently).\n\nHope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n...ryan\n\nYes it does, thanks!\n\nOf course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing specifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree that he came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he wasn't doing that, there is still that cast or quality to explain. I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be. \n\nUltimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question and suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on the man himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein was in his later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point, or not. \n\nIn fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an agenda, which I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that he was not trying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just playing along in his provocative way. But people do get set in their mental pathways with age, and maybe these moments of candor can be revealing. As a frinstance, my dad is also in his eighties and still very liberal in outlook, but even he passes along silly emails that reflect a certain, er, something. (No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "<20120801203819.QUJX8874.eastrmfepo103.cox.net@eastrmimpo209.cox.net>", "from": { "name": "James B. Jordan", "address": "jbjordan4 at cox.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T20:38:24+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<362C6AC4-FD7D-43C1-9DAC-983471EB3743@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "It's odd that a man who has written from a Christian, in his case \nRoman Catholic, strongly libertarian, anti-welfare state, and \ntraditional conservative semi-isolationist perspective -- which after \nall is and has been advocated by people with IQs well over 150 for \ncenturies and was the position of the founders of the United States \n-- is considered loony for doing so.\n\nPeople who think this way need an education in history.\n\nJBJordan" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "At 01:15 PM 8/1/2012, you wrote:\nDave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same \ntime it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a \nman in his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a \nconversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be \nthe type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps \nahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to \ncounter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner.\n\nAnd that LAUGH! Equal parts genuine and sinister; the type of laugh \nto comfort you at the same time it sets you on edge.\n\nNot sure if any of that translates to acutely self-aware, but his \nopinions and outlook seems very grounded in relevant, present-day \nculture and not a paranoid Cold War outlook or anything to that extent.\n\nJust wanted to add that piece of perspective. I would be curious to \nany others who have gotten to know Mr. Wolfe how they compare my \nassessment, or if I am speaking from the minority on the matter.\n\n...ryan\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 2:04 PM, DAVID STOCKHOFF wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "From: Ryan Dunn <ryan at liftingfaces.com>\nTo: The Urth Mailing List <urth at lists.urth.net>\nSent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 9:18 AM\nSubject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff \n<dstockhoff at verizon.net> wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily \ninterpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n\nAs clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n\n\"what cranky, ill-informed old people will believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n\nAnd yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/ half. " }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "That must mean something." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "BTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at \nleast the 1960s." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to \nthese predictions and letting it color their impression of him, \nthe place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out of \nsuch a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip of Mr. " }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Wolfe's musings." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "...ryan\nUnderstood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation about \nthe written word---or trying to make sense of another reader's observation?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "One could easily write whole books of criticism about the \nparanoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as \nsomeone has already noted). I don't know what they would conclude, \nbut I'd be interested in reading them." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics\n\nDave,\n\nI was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you \nthat impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on \nthis thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a \nshared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking his \nwritten word a bit seriously.\n\nMy point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling, and \nnot all together serious in these predictions. So when someone \ntakes \"a great interest in predictions and what they reveal,\" for \ninstance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five fingered prediction \nwould have revealed that he is indeed a sly, shifty, elusive \nprankster, even when portending to dole out 25 year predictions.\n\nI got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a \nhand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were used \nto support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man, which may \nhave gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write from an \nextreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does not seem at \nall to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is increasingly using \nhis prose to somehow push a conservative, anti-socialist agenda \n(which was also inferred on this and other threads recently).\n\nHope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n...ryan\n\nYes it does, thanks!\n\nOf course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing \nspecifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree that \nhe came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he wasn't \ndoing that, there is still that cast or quality to explain. I'm \nvery inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems \nvalid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be.\n\nUltimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question \nand suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on the \nman himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein was in \nhis later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point, or not.\n\nIn fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an agenda, \nwhich I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that he was not \ntrying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just playing along in \nhis provocative way. But people do get set in their mental pathways \nwith age, and maybe these moments of candor can be revealing. As a \nfrinstance, my dad is also in his eighties and still very liberal \nin outlook, but even he passes along silly emails that reflect a \ncertain, er, something. (No, setting fires out West would not be a \nclever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot \nof work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)\n\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "Gwern Branwen", "address": "gwern0 at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-01T20:52:06+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<20120801203819.QUJX8874.eastrmfepo103.cox.net@eastrmimpo209.cox.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 4:38 PM, James B. Jordan wrote:\nIt's odd that a man who has written from a Christian, in his case Roman\nCatholic, strongly libertarian, anti-welfare state, and traditional\nconservative semi-isolationist perspective -- which after all is and has\nbeen advocated by people with IQs well over 150 for centuries and was the\nposition of the founders of the United States -- is considered loony for\ndoing so." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I sincerely hope the Founding Fathers would not have endorsed those\npredictions when they were made; I had more respect for them. (On the\nother hand, the colonists *were* conspiracy theorists who thought that\nEngland was systematically undermining their liberties in order to\nconvert the colonies into fiefs which the Church of England and\nmonarchy could drain the blood out of for their private profit and\ninterpreted every move as a step in this cunningly laid plan by the\nKing's councilors and allies, so perhaps we shouldn't be overly\nconcerned with what they might have thought. No one's perfect.)\n\nI don't consider him 'loony' for writing from that perspective. I even\ncited 3 of my favorite authors who all fit that description (well,\nexcept for the Roman Catholicism part - I believe Murray is not\nCatholic).\n\nI consider him 'loony' for making predictions that were obviously\ngoing to be wrong at the time, and are even more obviously wrong now,\nin the same way I consider contemporary Communists to be loony." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "gwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net" } ] }, { "message_id": "<20120801211551.QIBK18243.eastrmfepo101.cox.net@eastrmimpo306.cox.net>", "from": { "name": "James B. Jordan", "address": "jbjordan4 at cox.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T21:15:56+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Ah. I see these predictions as tongue in cheek.\n\nJBJordan" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "At 03:52 PM 8/1/2012, you wrote:\nOn Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 4:38 PM, James B. Jordan wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "It's odd that a man who has written from a Christian, in his case Roman\nCatholic, strongly libertarian, anti-welfare state, and traditional\nconservative semi-isolationist perspective -- which after all is and has\nbeen advocated by people with IQs well over 150 for centuries and was the\nposition of the founders of the United States -- is considered loony for\ndoing so." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I sincerely hope the Founding Fathers would not have endorsed those\npredictions when they were made; I had more respect for them. (On the\nother hand, the colonists *were* conspiracy theorists who thought that\nEngland was systematically undermining their liberties in order to\nconvert the colonies into fiefs which the Church of England and\nmonarchy could drain the blood out of for their private profit and\ninterpreted every move as a step in this cunningly laid plan by the\nKing's councilors and allies, so perhaps we shouldn't be overly\nconcerned with what they might have thought. No one's perfect.)\n\nI don't consider him 'loony' for writing from that perspective. I even\ncited 3 of my favorite authors who all fit that description (well,\nexcept for the Roman Catholicism part - I believe Murray is not\nCatholic).\n\nI consider him 'loony' for making predictions that were obviously\ngoing to be wrong at the time, and are even more obviously wrong now,\nin the same way I consider contemporary Communists to be loony.\n\n--\ngwern\nhttp://www.gwern.net\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50199F4C.8090408@cox.net>", "from": { "name": "James B. Jordan", "address": "jbjordan4 at cox.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T21:27:40+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 7/27/2012 11:28 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\nOn Fri, Jul 2, 2010 at 7:50 AM, Gwern Branwen wrote:\n " }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I've read through most of _Starwater Strains_ now, and my initial\nbelief has hardened: Gene's writings are definitely getting more\npolitical. In his older works like _Peace_ or _Book of the New Sun_\n(pre-90s), I didn't notice anything political, or at least,\ncontemporary. But in stuff from the last 2 decades? My suspicion has\nbecome certainty.\n " }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Sorry I did not see this earlier. If you can find a copy of /Operation \nARES/, his first (and pretty uneven) novel, you'll see lots of \npolitical and contemporary stuff pretty much on the surface, including a \nsatirical ending. I think the viewpoints have always been there. I \nshould also mention /Free Live Free/, which is contemporary and highly \n\"political\" and was published in 1984 (!).\n\nFWIW\n\nJBJordan" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019A928.60704@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-01T22:09:44+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<20120801203819.QUJX8874.eastrmfepo103.cox.net@eastrmimpo209.cox.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Actually, nobody said that, and we obviously don't know the IQs of \nanyone born before the IQ test was developed, and the \"founding fathers\" \nwere deists (who hated and feared Roman Catholics, but hey, nobody's \nperfect).\n\nOtherwise, great comment!" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 4:38 PM, James B. Jordan wrote:\nIt's odd that a man who has written from a Christian, in his case \nRoman Catholic, strongly libertarian, anti-welfare state, and \ntraditional conservative semi-isolationist perspective -- which after \nall is and has been advocated by people with IQs well over 150 for \ncenturies and was the position of the founders of the United States -- \nis considered loony for doing so.\n\nPeople who think this way need an education in history.\n\nJBJordan\n\nAt 01:15 PM 8/1/2012, you wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time \nit seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man \nin his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a \nconversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be \nthe type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps \nahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to \ncounter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner.\n\nAnd that LAUGH! Equal parts genuine and sinister; the type of laugh \nto comfort you at the same time it sets you on edge.\n\nNot sure if any of that translates to acutely self-aware, but his \nopinions and outlook seems very grounded in relevant, present-day \nculture and not a paranoid Cold War outlook or anything to that extent.\n\nJust wanted to add that piece of perspective. I would be curious to \nany others who have gotten to know Mr. Wolfe how they compare my \nassessment, or if I am speaking from the minority on the matter.\n\n...ryan\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 2:04 PM, DAVID STOCKHOFF wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": " From: Ryan Dunn >\n To: The Urth Mailing List >\n Sent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 9:18 AM\n Subject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\n\n\n On Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff\n > wrote:\n\n >>> Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily\n interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n >>>\n >>> As clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n >>>\n >>> \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will\n believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n >>>\n >>> And yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/\n half. That must mean something.\n >>>\n >>> BTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at\n least the 1960s.\n >> Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to\n these predictions and letting it color their impression of him,\n the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out\n of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip\n of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n >>\n >> ...ryan\n > Understood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation\n about the written word---or trying to make sense of another\n reader's observation?\n >\n > One could easily write whole books of criticism about the\n paranoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as\n someone has already noted). I don't know what they would\n conclude, but I'd be interested in reading them.\n >\n >\n http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics\n\n\n Dave,\n\n I was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you\n that impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on\n this thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a\n shared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking\n his written word a bit seriously.\n\n My point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling,\n and not all together serious in these predictions. So when\n someone takes \"a great interest in predictions and what they\n reveal,\" for instance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five\n fingered prediction would have revealed that he is indeed a sly,\n shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out 25\n year predictions.\n\n I got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a\n hand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were\n used to support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man,\n which may have gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write\n from an extreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does\n not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is\n increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative,\n anti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other\n threads recently).\n\n Hope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n ...ryan\n\n Yes it does, thanks!\n\n Of course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing\n specifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree\n that he came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he\n wasn't doing that, there is still that cast or quality to\n explain. I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same\n time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this\n point a man in his 80s can be.\n\n Ultimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question\n and suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on\n the man himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein\n was in his later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point,\n or not.\n\n In fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an\n agenda, which I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that\n he was not trying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just\n playing along in his provocative way. But people do get set in\n their mental pathways with age, and maybe these moments of\n candor can be revealing. As a frinstance, my dad is also in his\n eighties and still very liberal in outlook, but even he passes\n along silly emails that reflect a certain, er, something. (No,\n setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist\n to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of\n people and they'd get caught. And so on.)\n\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "<20120802001401.BMBZ8874.eastrmfepo103.cox.net@eastrmimpo209.cox.net>", "from": { "name": "James B. Jordan", "address": "jbjordan4 at cox.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T00:14:06+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5019A928.60704@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "My bad. Apologies. Founders were more a mixed lot, from what I can tell.\n\nJBJordan" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "At 05:09 PM 8/1/2012, you wrote:\nActually, nobody said that, and we obviously don't know the IQs of \nanyone born before the IQ test was developed, and the \"founding \nfathers\" were deists (who hated and feared Roman Catholics, but hey, \nnobody's perfect).\n\nOtherwise, great comment!\n\nOn 8/1/2012 4:38 PM, James B. Jordan wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "It's odd that a man who has written from a Christian, in his case \nRoman Catholic, strongly libertarian, anti-welfare state, and \ntraditional conservative semi-isolationist perspective -- which \nafter all is and has been advocated by people with IQs well over \n150 for centuries and was the position of the founders of the \nUnited States -- is considered loony for doing so.\n\nPeople who think this way need an education in history.\n\nJBJordan\n\nAt 01:15 PM 8/1/2012, you wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same \ntime it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point \na man in his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a \nconversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to \nbe the type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two \nsteps ahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, \nanxious to counter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner.\n\nAnd that LAUGH! Equal parts genuine and sinister; the type of \nlaugh to comfort you at the same time it sets you on edge.\n\nNot sure if any of that translates to acutely self-aware, but his \nopinions and outlook seems very grounded in relevant, present-day \nculture and not a paranoid Cold War outlook or anything to that extent.\n\nJust wanted to add that piece of perspective. I would be curious \nto any others who have gotten to know Mr. Wolfe how they compare \nmy assessment, or if I am speaking from the minority on the matter.\n\n...ryan\n\n\nOn Aug 1, 2012, at 2:04 PM, DAVID STOCKHOFF wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": " From: Ryan Dunn >\n To: The Urth Mailing List >\n Sent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 9:18 AM\n Subject: Re: (urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe\n\n\n On Aug 1, 2012, at 8:55 AM, David Stockhoff\n > wrote:\n\n >>> Sure, of course it was a lark. And yes, one could easily\n interpret each one as /half /true. Where does that get us?\n >>>\n >>> As clarification, I didn't mean Wolfe /intended/ to predict\n >>>\n >>> \"what cranky, ill-informed old people will\n believe/fear/desire in 2012.\"\n >>>\n >>> And yet he succeeded---in my estimation, by /more than/\n half. That must mean something.\n >>>\n >>> BTW, literacy paranoia has been in vogue in the US since at\n least the 1960s.\n >> Since a few posters were giving varying amounts of weight to\n these predictions and letting it color their impression of him,\n the place my observation was hoping to get us was actually out\n of such a lofty critique of what I took to be a half joke blip\n of Mr. Wolfe's musings.\n >>\n >> ...ryan\n > Understood. But what's \"lofty\" about making an observation\n about the written word---or trying to make sense of another\n reader's observation?\n >\n > One could easily write whole books of criticism about the\n paranoid style in Gene Wolfe, and in dystopian SF in general (as\n someone has already noted). I don't know what they would\n conclude, but I'd be interested in reading them.\n >\n >\n http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paranoid_Style_in_American_Politics\n\n\n Dave,\n\n I was not inferring your critique was lofty, in case I gave you\n that impression. I was referring more to the earlier passion on\n this thread, and felt that we (as a collective of readers with a\n shared interest on a common mailing list) may have been taking\n his written word a bit seriously.\n\n My point is that he seems to be a bit flippant, half smiling,\n and not all together serious in these predictions. So when\n someone takes \"a great interest in predictions and what they\n reveal,\" for instance, I would hope that Mr. Wolfe's five\n fingered prediction would have revealed that he is indeed a sly,\n shifty, elusive prankster, even when portending to dole out 25\n year predictions.\n\n I got the vibe that it was not being interpreted with as light a\n hand as that, however. In fact, I got the impression they were\n used to support a feeling of disenchantment with him as a man,\n which may have gotten me riled a little bit. While he may write\n from an extreme, and detailed perspective on society, he does\n not seem at all to be a dystopian, right-wing loon who is\n increasingly using his prose to somehow push a conservative,\n anti-socialist agenda (which was also inferred on this and other\n threads recently).\n\n Hope that clarifies my points on this matter a little bit better.\n\n ...ryan\n\n Yes it does, thanks!\n\n Of course, in order to reach a conclusion that Wolfe was playing\n specifically with \"right-wing loon\"-ness, one must first agree\n that he came off a little \"right-wing loon\"-y. If you think he\n wasn't doing that, there is still that cast or quality to\n explain. I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same\n time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this\n point a man in his 80s can be.\n\n Ultimately, there's plenty of room between raising that question\n and suggesting a conscious agenda. And I see no reflection on\n the man himself---he's probably way more together than Heinlein\n was in his later years. Gwern may choose to speak on that point,\n or not.\n\n In fact, the question tends to weaken the suggestion of an\n agenda, which I find quite un-Wolfe-like. Much more likely that\n he was not trying to be loon-y at all, in his own mind, just\n playing along in his provocative way. But people do get set in\n their mental pathways with age, and maybe these moments of\n candor can be revealing. As a frinstance, my dad is also in his\n eighties and still very liberal in outlook, but even he passes\n along silly emails that reflect a certain, er, something. (No,\n setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist\n to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of\n people and they'd get caught. And so on.)\n\n_______________________________________________" } ] }, { "message_id": "<3C69BE56-7A6C-44CC-93CD-7B81E8F760B5@gmail.com>", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T00:23:33+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I just can't see what it is that those predictions, in jest or dead seriousness, reveal about their author's sinister (ha) politics. It has been stated they do, I'd like to know what and how." } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T00:28:23+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<1343844296.27434.YahooMailNeo@web84508.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:04, DAVID STOCKHOFF escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "(No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Eh? Setting forest fires seems to me to be one of the most cost-effective ways of provoking damage and terror. If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless. What is it I'm nit getting?" } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T00:30:42+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<362C6AC4-FD7D-43C1-9DAC-983471EB3743@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:15, Ryan Dunn escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a conversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be the type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps ahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to counter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I personally know people around their 90s who talk and write as if they were 30. " } ] }, { "message_id": "<1343871630.91287.YahooMailNeo@web114711.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>", "from": { "name": "Jerry Friedman", "address": "jerry_friedman at yahoo.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T01:40:30+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "From: Ant?nio Pedro Marques \nNo dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:04, DAVID STOCKHOFF escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "(No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Eh? Setting forest fires seems to me to be one of the most cost-effective ways of provoking damage and terror. If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless. What is it I'm nit getting?" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I was going to mention something about that. ?Setting forest fires is so easy that one person can do it by accident. ?See for instance the two biggest fires in Arizona history: the Rodeo-Chediski Fire (one part set by an arsonist, the other by a woman trying to signal rescuers) and the Wallow Fire (started by an abandoned campfire).\n\nYou can get caught, though, as happened to the two men who accidentally started the Wallow Fire.\n\nhttp://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/28/abqnewsseeker/updated-cousins-plead-guilty-to-ariz-fire-charges.html\n\nAnd it may look more like vandalism than political action on the home front.\n\nJerry Friedman" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019DBDF.4090203@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T01:46:07+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 8:30 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:\nNo dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:15, Ryan Dunn escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a conversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be the type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps ahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to counter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I personally know people around their 90s who talk and write as if they were 30." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I'm in my 40s and I don't think even I do that. ;)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019DE3A.5090403@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T01:56:10+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<1343871630.91287.YahooMailNeo@web114711.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 9:40 PM, Jerry Friedman wrote:\nFrom: Ant?nio Pedro Marques \nNo dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:04, DAVID STOCKHOFF escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "(No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Eh? Setting forest fires seems to me to be one of the most cost-effective ways of provoking damage and terror. If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless. What is it I'm nit getting?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I was going to mention something about that. Setting forest fires is so easy that one person can do it by accident. See for instance the two biggest fires in Arizona history: the Rodeo-Chediski Fire (one part set by an arsonist, the other by a woman trying to signal rescuers) and the Wallow Fire (started by an abandoned campfire).\n\nYou can get caught, though, as happened to the two men who accidentally started the Wallow Fire.\n\nhttp://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/28/abqnewsseeker/updated-cousins-plead-guilty-to-ariz-fire-charges.html\n\nAnd it may look more like vandalism than political action on the home front.\n\nJerry Friedman" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Exactly. I'm sure terrorists consider and reject all sorts of ideas." } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "António Pedro Marques", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T02:08:57+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5019DE3A.5090403@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 02:56, David Stockhoff escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 9:40 PM, Jerry Friedman wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "From: Ant?nio Pedro Marques \nNo dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:04, DAVID STOCKHOFF escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "(No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Eh? Setting forest fires seems to me to be one of the most cost-effective ways of provoking damage and terror. If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless. What is it I'm nit getting?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I was going to mention something about that. Setting forest fires is so easy that one person can do it by accident. See for instance the two biggest fires in Arizona history: the Rodeo-Chediski Fire (one part set by an arsonist, the other by a woman trying to signal rescuers) and the Wallow Fire (started by an abandoned campfire).\n\nYou can get caught, though, as happened to the two men who accidentally started the Wallow Fire.\n\nhttp://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/28/abqnewsseeker/updated-cousins-plead-guilty-to-ariz-fire-charges.html\n\nAnd it may look more like vandalism than political action on the home front.\n\nJerry Friedman" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Exactly. I'm sure terrorists consider and reject all sorts of ideas." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "But what did you mean by it requiring a lot of work and their likeliness to be caught? Those are the bits I inquired on. Lot of work to set fires? I mean, that could apply to lots of other ideas, but here?" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019E56E.5020801@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T02:26:54+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 10:08 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:\nNo dia 02/08/2012, ?s 02:56, David Stockhoff escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/1/2012 9:40 PM, Jerry Friedman wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "From: Ant?nio Pedro Marques \nNo dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:04, DAVID STOCKHOFF escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "(No, setting fires out West would not be a clever way for a terrorist to create terror. It would require a lot of work by a lot of people and they'd get caught. And so on.)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Eh? Setting forest fires seems to me to be one of the most cost-effective ways of provoking damage and terror. If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless. What is it I'm nit getting?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I was going to mention something about that. Setting forest fires is so easy that one person can do it by accident. See for instance the two biggest fires in Arizona history: the Rodeo-Chediski Fire (one part set by an arsonist, the other by a woman trying to signal rescuers) and the Wallow Fire (started by an abandoned campfire).\n\nYou can get caught, though, as happened to the two men who accidentally started the Wallow Fire.\n\nhttp://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/28/abqnewsseeker/updated-cousins-plead-guilty-to-ariz-fire-charges.html\n\nAnd it may look more like vandalism than political action on the home front.\n\nJerry Friedman\nExactly. I'm sure terrorists consider and reject all sorts of ideas." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "But what did you mean by it requiring a lot of work and their likeliness to be caught? Those are the bits I inquired on. Lot of work to set fires? I mean, that could apply to lots of other ideas, but here?" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "In order to create a wildfire that is bigger than \"natural\" wildfires, \nyou'd have to start several fires over a wide area. If it's not bigger \nthan normal fires, what's the point?" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019F7AC.506@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T03:44:44+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5019E56E.5020801@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 9:26 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/1/2012 10:08 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "But what did you mean by it requiring a lot of work and their\nlikeliness to be caught? Those are the bits I inquired on. Lot of work\nto set fires? I mean, that could apply to lots of other ideas, but here?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "In order to create a wildfire that is bigger than \"natural\" wildfires,\nyou'd have to start several fires over a wide area. If it's not bigger\nthan normal fires, what's the point?" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Considering how much press and FUD just a threat like a fake bomb scare \ncan get, it wouldn't have to be even as \"big\" as a natural fire. Natural \nand accidental fires happen infrequently, but if you make it plain you \nare willing to set them on purpose, you create a perception of \nsignificant risk on a daily basis.\n\nA terror org could deliberately set a fire in an area with a high danger \nof spread to inhabited areas, then when fire fighting resources are \nconcentrated there, they set another one at another high-risk area in a \ndistant part of the same or adjacent state - now there are two fires! \nLimited resources have to be diverted from the big established one to \nfight the new one, they take much longer to respond than normal because \nthey are already deployed instead of at the ready and farther away, and \nnow the pols get to explain to the first fire's victims why they decided \nthe second fire was more important, to the second fire's victims why \nhelp was so slow to arrive, and to the fire fighters why they cut the \nbudget last year, etc.\n\n\nThen whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in another \narson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie roast gets to \nenjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\" policies..." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019F976.3030403@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T03:52:22+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<362C6AC4-FD7D-43C1-9DAC-983471EB3743@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 1:15 PM, Ryan Dunn wrote:\nDave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time it\nseems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man in his\n80s can be.\"" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "It seems to be it would depend on the man." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<5019FF2F.80103@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T04:16:47+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5019DBDF.4090203@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 8:46 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/1/2012 8:30 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "No dia 01/08/2012, ?s 19:15, Ryan Dunn escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Dave,\n\nThanks for the response. I just wanted to call out one bit...\n\nYOU WROTE: \"I'm very inclined to agree with you, but at the same time\nit seems valid to wonder exactly how self-aware on this point a man\nin his 80s can be.\"\n\nI'm not sure if you have ever had the good fortune to hold a\nconversation with Mr. Wolfe, but as of last year, I found him to be\nthe type of conversationalist that always to seem to be two steps\nahead of you, ready with a quip, eager for an anecdote, anxious to\ncounter point your point, in a wry, light-hearted, jovial manner." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I personally know people around their 90s who talk and write as if\nthey were 30." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I'm in my 40s and I don't think even I do that. ;)" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I've had the wonderful honor to hobnob with various elder authors who \nwere quite cogent. Damon Knight, for example, sounded like one of the \ncool kids despite being in his late 70's back in the old GEnie days." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501A685A.7020400@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T11:45:30+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<5019F7AC.506@clueland.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/1/2012 11:44 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:\nOn 8/1/2012 9:26 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/1/2012 10:08 PM, Ant?nio Pedro Marques wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "But what did you mean by it requiring a lot of work and their\nlikeliness to be caught? Those are the bits I inquired on. Lot of work\nto set fires? I mean, that could apply to lots of other ideas, but \nhere?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "In order to create a wildfire that is bigger than \"natural\" wildfires,\nyou'd have to start several fires over a wide area. If it's not bigger\nthan normal fires, what's the point?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Considering how much press and FUD just a threat like a fake bomb \nscare can get, it wouldn't have to be even as \"big\" as a natural fire. \nNatural and accidental fires happen infrequently, but if you make it \nplain you are willing to set them on purpose, you create a perception \nof significant risk on a daily basis.\n\nA terror org could deliberately set a fire in an area with a high \ndanger of spread to inhabited areas, then when fire fighting resources \nare concentrated there, they set another one at another high-risk area \nin a distant part of the same or adjacent state - now there are two \nfires! Limited resources have to be diverted from the big established \none to fight the new one, they take much longer to respond than normal \nbecause they are already deployed instead of at the ready and farther \naway, and now the pols get to explain to the first fire's victims why \nthey decided the second fire was more important, to the second fire's \nvictims why help was so slow to arrive, and to the fire fighters why \nthey cut the budget last year, etc.\n\n\nThen whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in \nanother arson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie \nroast gets to enjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\" \npolicies..." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "All true, but there's a big difference between \"terror\" and \"media \nhysterics.\" I just have to assume terrorists know the difference too." } ] }, { "message_id": "<501AED1A.1020408@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T21:11:54+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501A685A.7020400@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/2/2012 6:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/1/2012 11:44 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Then whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in\nanother arson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie\nroast gets to enjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\"\npolicies..." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "All true, but there's a big difference between \"terror\" and \"media\nhysterics.\" I just have to assume terrorists know the difference too." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "That difference is largely in the eye of the media consumers in \ncountries that rely on popular support of government." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501AEEC0.2050901@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T21:18:56+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501AED1A.1020408@clueland.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/2/2012 5:11 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:\nOn 8/2/2012 6:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/1/2012 11:44 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Then whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in\nanother arson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie\nroast gets to enjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\"\npolicies..." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "All true, but there's a big difference between \"terror\" and \"media\nhysterics.\" I just have to assume terrorists know the difference too." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "That difference is largely in the eye of the media consumers in \ncountries that rely on popular support of government." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why don't \nthey try things like this?\n\nMy first answer, even before all the other stuff, is: because there are \nso few of them. (Real ones, I mean, not FBI extras.)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501AF1D2.3020504@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T21:32:02+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501AEEC0.2050901@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/2/2012 4:18 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/2/2012 5:11 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/2/2012 6:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On 8/1/2012 11:44 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Then whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in\nanother arson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie\nroast gets to enjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\"\npolicies..." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "All true, but there's a big difference between \"terror\" and \"media\nhysterics.\" I just have to assume terrorists know the difference too." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "That difference is largely in the eye of the media consumers in\ncountries that rely on popular support of government." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why don't\nthey try things like this?\n\nMy first answer, even before all the other stuff, is: because there are\nso few of them. (Real ones, I mean, not FBI extras.)" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Yes, however, as the number of radicals hardcore enough to do some \nunthinkable thing starts off very small, as they do more of it it \nbecomes thinkable to more, less hardcore people who see the actual \nresults of the act as a way to further their agenda. At least, this \nhappened with skyjacking.\n\nAlso, the recent anti-terror, anti-shooter measures have made bomb and \nshooter hoaxes more effective at causing disruption, and are just now \nstarting to saturate to the point where some places' cops are declining \nto shut down public venues on single reports, IIRC." }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501AFC82.1050509@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T22:17:38+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501AF1D2.3020504@clueland.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/2/2012 5:32 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:\nOn 8/2/2012 4:18 PM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/2/2012 5:11 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On 8/2/2012 6:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "On 8/1/2012 11:44 PM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "Then whenever the terror org needs some publicity, they call in\nanother arson threat, and everyone running an unsanctioned weenie\nroast gets to enjoy the half-assed security theatre \"zero tolerance\"\npolicies..." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "All true, but there's a big difference between \"terror\" and \"media\nhysterics.\" I just have to assume terrorists know the difference too." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "That difference is largely in the eye of the media consumers in\ncountries that rely on popular support of government." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why don't\nthey try things like this?\n\nMy first answer, even before all the other stuff, is: because there are\nso few of them. (Real ones, I mean, not FBI extras.)" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Yes, however, as the number of radicals hardcore enough to do some \nunthinkable thing starts off very small, as they do more of it it \nbecomes thinkable to more, less hardcore people who see the actual \nresults of the act as a way to further their agenda. At least, this \nhappened with skyjacking.\n\nAlso, the recent anti-terror, anti-shooter measures have made bomb and \nshooter hoaxes more effective at causing disruption, and are just now \nstarting to saturate to the point where some places' cops are \ndeclining to shut down public venues on single reports, IIRC." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Sure. And skyjacking got boring too." } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "nate jarvis", "address": "natejarv at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-02T22:23:41+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501AF1D2.3020504@clueland.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I think the simplest answer is that terrorists prefer urban areas or\nresorts (eg the Red Sea beach resorts) as targets. A large scale\nforest fire doesn't affect as many people as a subway bomb or a\nskyjacking that could shut down a large city's trains or one (or all,\nas with the 2nd WTC attack) airports. Also, if you set the fire on\nTuesday morning, claim responsibility Tuesday afternoon, and it rains\non Tuesday evening, you look silly. If a group wants to use arson as a\nterror attack, setting fires in multiple sites in a city makes more\nsense, especially if they can sabotage the fire department's response\nin some fashion.\n\nNate" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501B09B4.3000203@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-02T23:13:56+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/2/2012 6:23 PM, nate jarvis wrote:\nI think the simplest answer is that terrorists prefer urban areas or\nresorts (eg the Red Sea beach resorts) as targets. A large scale\nforest fire doesn't affect as many people as a subway bomb or a\nskyjacking that could shut down a large city's trains or one (or all,\nas with the 2nd WTC attack) airports. Also, if you set the fire on\nTuesday morning, claim responsibility Tuesday afternoon, and it rains\non Tuesday evening, you look silly. If a group wants to use arson as a\nterror attack, setting fires in multiple sites in a city makes more\nsense, especially if they can sabotage the fire department's response\nin some fashion.\n\nNate" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "The attack on Mumbai is a classic example: media, modernity, population, \nnational identity, vulnerability.\n\nFires in Colorado? Nah." } ] }, { "message_id": "", "from": { "name": "entonio at gmail.com", "address": "entonio at gmail.com" }, "date": "2012-08-03T10:14:30+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501AEEC0.2050901@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why don't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify killing innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would make it worthless." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "That they prefer urban areas is the same reason, IMO. " } ] }, { "message_id": "<501BB761.9080700@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-03T11:34:57+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/3/2012 5:14 AM, entonio at gmail.com wrote:\nNo dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff > escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why\ndon't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify\nkilling innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would\nmake it worthless." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Apparently not:\n\nhttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/05/02/al-qaeda-magazine-encourages-forest-fire-arson-in-the-us/" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501BB9DC.6000504@verizon.net>", "from": { "name": "David Stockhoff", "address": "dstockhoff at verizon.net" }, "date": "2012-08-03T11:45:32+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501BB761.9080700@clueland.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/3/2012 7:34 AM, Jeff Wilson wrote:\nOn 8/3/2012 5:14 AM, entonio at gmail.com wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff > escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why\ndon't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify\nkilling innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would\nmake it worthless." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Apparently not:\n\nhttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/05/02/al-qaeda-magazine-encourages-forest-fire-arson-in-the-us/ " }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Hilarious. I'm not trying to be dogmatic about it, but note that no one \nhas taken them up on their suggestion.\n\nOn another note, I call on all jihadis to secretly join suburban \nAmerican swimming pools and pee in them.\n\n;)" } ] }, { "message_id": "<50E344C6-078A-4B64-A674-DBCA323F00E6@liftingfaces.com>", "from": { "name": "Ryan Dunn", "address": "ryan at liftingfaces.com" }, "date": "2012-08-03T13:07:55+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501BB9DC.6000504@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On Aug 3, 2012, at 7:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/3/2012 7:34 AM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/3/2012 5:14 AM, entonio at gmail.com wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff > escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why\ndon't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 6, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify\nkilling innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would\nmake it worthless." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Apparently not:\n\nhttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/05/02/al-qaeda-magazine-encourages-forest-fire-arson-in-the-us/ " }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Hilarious. I'm not trying to be dogmatic about it, but note that no one has taken them up on their suggestion.\n\nOn another note, I call on all jihadis to secretly join suburban American swimming pools and pee in them." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "Something like you suggest would certainly be easy to claim credit for, Dave!\n\n...ryan" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501BCEBA.8060507@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-03T13:14:34+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<501BB9DC.6000504@verizon.net>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/3/2012 6:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:\n\nOn 8/3/2012 7:34 AM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/3/2012 5:14 AM, entonio at gmail.com wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff > escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why\ndon't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 6, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify\nkilling innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would\nmake it worthless." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Apparently not:\n\nhttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/05/02/al-qaeda-magazine-encourages-forest-fire-arson-in-the-us/" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Hilarious. I'm not trying to be dogmatic about it, but note that no one\nhas taken them up on their suggestion.\n\nOn another note, I call on all jihadis to secretly join suburban\nAmerican swimming pools and pee in them." }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "I did note that they targeted Montana, one of the thinnest and least \npopulous states. :)" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] }, { "message_id": "<501BD24E.4040803@clueland.com>", "from": { "name": "Jeff Wilson", "address": "jwilson at clueland.com" }, "date": "2012-08-03T13:29:50+00:00", "subject": "(urth) Predictions Re: The Politics Of Gene Wolfe", "in_reply_to": "<50E344C6-078A-4B64-A674-DBCA323F00E6@liftingfaces.com>", "reply_link": "header", "blocks": [ { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "On 8/3/2012 8:07 AM, Ryan Dunn wrote:\nOn Aug 3, 2012, at 7:45 AM, David Stockhoff wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "On 8/3/2012 7:34 AM, Jeff Wilson wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "On 8/3/2012 5:14 AM, entonio at gmail.com wrote:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "No dia 02/08/2012, ?s 22:18, David Stockhoff > escreveu:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 5, "text": "Perhaps. But even granting that terrorists are not all-knowing why\ndon't they try things like this?" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 4, "text": "I stand by my original answer:" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 7, "text": "If terrorists don't do it it's because even they can't justify\nkilling innocent wildlife and leaving the attack unclaimed would\nmake it worthless." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 3, "text": "Apparently not:\n\nhttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/05/02/al-qaeda-magazine-encourages-forest-fire-arson-in-the-us/" }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 2, "text": "Hilarious. I'm not trying to be dogmatic about it, but note that no one has taken them up on their suggestion.\n\nOn another note, I call on all jihadis to secretly join suburban American swimming pools and pee in them." }, { "kind": "quote", "depth": 1, "text": "Something like you suggest would certainly be easy to claim credit for, Dave!" }, { "kind": "text", "depth": 0, "text": "\"Al-Queda peed in it, Mom, I swear!\"" }, { "kind": "sig", "depth": 0, "text": "Jeff Wilson - jwilson at clueland.com\nComputational Intelligence Laboratory - Texas A&M Texarkana\n< http://www.tamut.edu/CIL >" } ] } ] }