Subject: (whorl) When did the Whorl arrive?

From: Adam Stephanides <adamsteph at earthlink.net>
Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2000 17:40:11 +0000

mantis wrote:
 
> In OBW, the Rajan goes over some of the same stuff we've gone over with
> regard to how Quetzal got onto the Whorl, that is, "in what year" and "by
> what method."
> 
> The Rajan ends by figuring that the Whorl must have been just hanging
> around in the system for 100 years (detail also matches Pas's planned
> timeframe, such as we know).  This means that the flight-time was only
> around 200 years.

But the 100 years is not the time the Whorl has been in the system, but
the Rajan's guess at the interval between Whorl-Green conjunctions (and
even this guess is based on the hypothesis that Quetzal flew to the
Whorl during such a conjunction, which the Rajan apparently no longer
regards as the most likely possibility).

The Rajan's actual estimate of the length of time since Quetzal appeared
on the Whorl, and hence the minimum time the Whorl has been in the
system, is 68 years.

--Adam

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---

From: Michael Andre-Driussi <mantis at sirius.com>
Date: Sat, 17 Jun 2000 19:36:27 +0000

>on the Whorl, and hence the minimum time the Whorl has been in the

And I quote: "That [60 years of Q onboard] seemed rather short to me--I
would have imagined that such a rise [for Q within church] would require
fifteen years or more [and Q would have only seven years]" (OBW, p. 182).

And back in BOTLS:
"The way I see it, Pas was thinking mostly about the first two hundred
years.  Maybe the first two hundred and fifty" (LAKE, p. 235-6).

(I won't bore you with the other details--you would discount them faster
than you will this one!)

After looking at those numbers afresh, Gosh Adam, maybe you're right and
I've erred on the timid side--it could be 132 years since the Whorl arrived
at the Blue/Green system!  Or perhaps only 62 . . . well, we could take an
average.

Can't forget to add the Years of the Colony to all figures!

BOTLS :  year 332
BOTSS : Blue colony year 20 = whorl year 352

So that would be . . . 152 years ago, or only 82 . . .

(This has bearing re: apparant likelihood of Whorl conjuction from
perspective of year 352)

(332 - 132 =) year 200 Hammerstone's highball for Plan of Pas
(332 -  62 =) year 250 Hammerstone's lowball for Plan of Pas

Year 251: Jerboa born

(352 - 100 =) year 252 Horn's highball for being insystem
(352 -  68 =) year 284 Horn's practical limit for being insystem
(352 -  60 =) year 292 Horn's lowball for being insystem

Year 299: Q becomes P of Viron

Connection between "Plan of Pas" and "being insystem"?  Conjecture, surely.

We had precious few clues in BOTLS as to how long the Whorl =might= have
been just hanging around.  Believe It or Not: I wouldn't even factor it
(idle orbit) into the calculations on the travel of the Whorl.  Now Horn is
fooling around with it, and it seems rather like he is working in the same
area as the Hammerstone hint we had before.

Whatever.

=mantis=

---

From: Adam Stephanides <adamsteph at earthlink.net>
Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2000 09:51:05 +0000

> fifteen years or more [and Q would have only seven years]" (OBW, p. 182). 

Right--this, and what follows, is where I got the 68 years from.  Or am
I  missing your point?

> (352 - 100 =) year 252 Horn's highball for being insystem

This I don't see.  I'd have to look up the text again (I don't have it
with me) but my recollection is that the 100-year figure applied only to
the interval between (hypothetical) Whorl-Green conjunctions.  I don't
recall Horn in this passage considering at all the maximum amount of
time the Whorl could have spent in the system.

> area as the Hammerstone hint we had before.

If we assume that the Whorl was in the system when Quetzal came on
board,  and that Horn's recollections/extrapolations of Quetzal's career
are accurate, then the minimum of 68 years can be approximately relied
on.  Horn's other numbers are only guesswork, and very shaky at that. 
(I won't comment on the BoTLS stuff, because I don't remember it at all
and I don't have the texts with me.)

--Adam