First Exodus theory revised

Gerry Quinn · 12 Feb 2011, 14:23 · from 2011-February.txt.gz

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From: gerryq at indigo.ie (Gerry Quinn)
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2011 14:23:53 -0000
Subject: (urth) First Exodus theory revised
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From: "Ant?nio Pedro Marques" <entonio at gmail.com>
> Gerry Quinn wrote (11-02-2011 14:08):

>> All we know is that Tussah spent a lot on a special embryo. Everything
>> else is inference. Leadership (and perhaps a propensity to hate
>> corruption), with the intention to defeat the Ayuntiamento seem the most
>> plausible objectives, if indeed Tussah was acting for the benefit of
>> Viron (if he was acting for Pas, Viron has no future anyway). Tussah's
>> knowledge of Typhon's personality is neither here nor there. Either he
>> wants an embryo with certain qualities, or he is acting for Typhon.
>
> ? What then did you mean by '*then* great leadership skills are not much 
> of a pointer to Typhon, as they might be if they appeared in a random 
> embryo'? I thought you were saying Tussah reasoned a random embryo would 
> have leadership without corruption, whereas a Typhon-related one would 
> only have the former. If that's not it, I can't make sens of your 
> paragraph.

I am talking about the application of Bayesian-type arguments to adjust our 
prior assessment of the probability that Silk is genetically related to 
Typhon, based on our observation that he displays great leadership traits.

Great leadership traits would be rare and surprising in a random embryo, but 
not in an embryo selected for engineered leadership traits, and not in an 
embryo genetically related to Typhon.

So if we know that the embryo was engineered to have such traits, then the 
fact that Silk has such traits tells us nothing about his parentage.

But if we know the embryo was not selected for that reason, then the 
appearance of these traits is surprising, and increases our belief in the 
possibility that Silk is related to Typhon.  (For some of us it may increase 
it from 0.000000001 to 0.0000001, but nevertheless it increases it.)

>>>> [Tussah] provides some of the backstory for the political situation in 
>>>> Viron,
>>>> and he explains how a special embryo came to be implanted in an 
>>>> ordinary
>>>> woman. He also provides Silk with a claim to the caldeship.
>>>
>>> ...all of which aren't really necessary. Enabling Quetzal aboard is
>>> necessary.
>>
>> We are told how Quetzal got aboard (an experiment by the Neighbours).
>
> And what's the reliability of that?

Pretty high IMO, unless the Neighbours' sense of humour extends to falsely 
admitting to activities some might construe as tantamount to genocide.

Besides, there's no evidence for any alternate explanation of how he got on 
board.

>>>> As for Typhon, if he wanted a child with Kypris he could have had him
>>>> born on Urth, and it seems the most obvious thing for him to do!
>>>
>>> That would be a competitor. We're told he wanted an heir, it doesn't
>>> follow that he wanted the heir around.
>>
>> Tartarus and Hierax were born on Urth. Clearly he wanted an heir there.
>
> It's not clear, if anything it's 'He didn't seem to mind having them 
> there'. But that was at an earlier time.

You're stretching.

- Gerry Quinn

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